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Tupolev Tu-154M accident report

Iran Air Tours Tu-154M EP-ITC c/n 91A-874 at Novosibirsk, April 1993 , a similar aircraft to the crashed EP-ITD.

Monday 8 February 1993 Iran Air Tour Tu-154M EP-ITD c/n 91A-903

Flight from Tehran (THR) to Mashhad airport (MHD), Iran with 12 crew and 119 passengers. First flight : 1991. Shortly after taking off from RW29R the Tu-154M collided with a Sukhoi Su-24MK which was approaching RW29L. Both aircraft crashed.

engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board the Tu-154M died in the crash and also both crew from the Sukhoi were killed.

location : 15km from Tehran apt. +-200m 35°44’00”N 51°08’08”E

Monday 3 January 1994 Baikal Airlines Tu-154M RA-85656, MSN : 89A-801

Flight X3130 from Irkutsk (IKT), Russia to Moskva (DME) with 9 crew and 115 passengers. Four minutes after take-off from RW12 the engine starter of no.2 engine suffered an uncontained failure. A fire broke out witch could not be controlled by the crew. Due to the fire control was lost and the aircraft crashed amongst farm buildings. First flight : 1989 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash and 1 person on the ground was killed and 1 farmer seriously injured.

location : near Mamony 11km from the airfield +-200m 52°18’34”N 104°09’48”E

Bogie landing gear of Tu-154M RA-85656

Monday 6 June 1994 China Northwest airlines Tu-154M B-2610 c/n 86A-740

Flight WH2303 from Xian (XIY), China to Guanghou (CAN) with 14 crew and 146 passengers. 24 seconds after taking of the crew reported they had difficulty to control the aircraft. The aircraft went out of control and broke up in the air. Cause : auto-pilot wrong connected. First flight : 1986. Airframe hrs : 12507 cycles : 6651 engines : Soloviev D-20KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash.

location : 29km SE of Xian airport +-300m 34°18’37”N 108°52’20”E

Thursday 29 August 1996 Vnukovo airlines Tu-154M RA-85621 c/n 86A-742

Charted flight VKO2801 from Moskva-Vnukovo (VKO) to Svalbard-Longyearbyen apt. (LYR), Norway with 11 crew and 130 passengers, workers and their families, working in the coal mining on Svalbard. Approaching RW28 the aircraft was somewhat out of course resulting it to crash against Operafjellet mountain at 907m height, 3.7km to the right of the runway 28 approach centerline. First flight : 1986 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II All people on board died in the crash. location : 14.3km from Svalbard +-25m 78°12.846’N 16°05.719’E (taken from the crash report)

Memorial at the VKO2801 crash site at Svalbard

Saturday 13 September 1997 Luftwaffe Tu-154M 11+02 c/n 89A-813

Flight 074 from Niamey (NIM), Niger to Windhoek (WDH), Namibia with 10 crew and 14 passengers. The Tu-154M was on a flight from Germany to South Africa and had made a stop on Niamey for refuelling. En route Mid Air collision (MAC) over the Atlantic ocean with an USAF C-141B Starlifter First flight : 1989. engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash. Also all 9 on board the C-141 Starlifter died in the crash. Cause : The Tu-154M not flying on the prescribed flying altitude and ATC not aware of two flights in the same air space. location : +-10 km 19°13’04”S 10°12’26”E

Saturday 29 August 1998 Cubana Tu-154M CU-T1264 c/n 85A-720

Flight CU389 from Quito (UIO), Ecuador to Guayaquil (GYE), Ecuador with 14 crew and 77 passengers. Taking off from RW17 it could not rotate at speed Vr. The crew aborted the take-off but could not stop on time, overshooting the runway into a soccer field. First flight : 1985. Airframe hrs : 9256 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. 70 people on board died in the crash. 10 people on the ground were killed. 36 people injured.

location : +-200m 0°08’55”S 78°29’06”W

Wednesday 24 February 1999 China Southwest airlines Tu-154M B-2622 c/n 90A-846

Flight SZ4509 from Chengdu (CTU) to Wenzhou (WNZ), China with 11 crew and 50 passengers. First flight : 1990. Control with elevators was lost resulting in a stall followed by a steep descent. Airframe hrs : 14135 cycles : 7748 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All 61 people on board died in the crash. Several farmers were injured by the flying debris. location : Ruian +-200m 27°43’08”N 120°39’30”E (from the accident report)

Wednesday 4 July 2001 Vladivostokavia Tu-154M RA-85845 c/n 86A-735

Flight 352 from Ekaterinburg (SVX), Russia to Irkutsk (IKT) with 9 crew and 136 passengers. Wrong approach to Irkutsk. Turned to steeply and went out of control. First flight : 1986. Airframe hrs : 20953 cycles : 11387 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash. location : Burdakovka +-200m 52°07’41”N 104°37’16”E (taken from the accident report)

Thursday 4 October 2001 Sibir Airlines Tu-154M RA-85693 c/n 90A-866

Flight 1812 from Tel Aviv (TLV), Israel to Novosibirsk (OVB), Russia with 12 crew and 66 passengers. Flying at FL360 over the Black Sea she was hit by a 5V28 Surface-Air Missile (SAM) fired by Ukrainian defence forces doing exercises near Feodosia on the Crimea peninsula. The aircraft went out of controlled and dived into de Black Sea and sank to a depth of 2000m. First flight : 1990 Airframe hrs : 16705 cycles : 7281 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash. location : S-200V missile battery +-100m 45°03'48"N 36°05'07"E crash location +-25km 43°42’20”N 37°42’50”E

Bulgarian Tu-154M LZ-LCO, later if flew with Iran Airtour as EP-MBS.

Tuesday 12 February 2002 Iran Airtour Tu-154M EP-MBS c/n 91A-871

Flight 956 from Tehran (THR) to Khorramabad (KHD), Iran with 12 crew and 107 passengers. Crashed into Kuh-e Sefid Mountain at 2770 [m] ( 33°41’56”N 47°58’22”E ) during approach to KHD RW11. First flight : 1991. Airframe hrs : 12701 cycles : 5516 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash. location : few km NE from Sarab-e Do Rah +-1km 33°33’48”N 48°01’19”E

Monday 1 July 2002 Bashkirskie Avialinii Tu-154M RA-85816 c/n 95A-1006

Flight BTC2937 from Moskva (DME) to Barcelona (BCN) with 9 crew and 60 passengers (many children) flying in westerly direction (274°).

MAC with an DHL 757 freighter heading north (04°) at FL354 near Altheim, North of Uberlingen at the Lake of Konstanz. There was a TCAS warning but it contradicted with the ATC instructions resulting evasive movements (descent) were in the same directions leading to the mid-air collision. First flight : 1995. Airframe hrs : 10788. engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board the Tu-154 and Boeing 757 died in the crash (total 71). A Russian man who had lost his family in the accident held the controller responsible and killed him at his home in Kloten , near Zόrich, on 24 February 2004.

MAC estimated location : SW of Altheim +-500m 47°49’13”N 9°14’19”E at FL354 (10790m)

Memorial near Brachenreute, location : +-15m : 47°47’51.74”N 9°08’50.28”E

Tu-154M forward fuselage + cockpit +-50m : 47°47’44.6”N 9°08’57”E in a apple plantation.

Left wing + centre section : +-100m 47°47’33.6”N 9°10’05.8”E

Tail + engines : +- 100m 47°47’48”N 9°08’58”E

Right wing +-100m 47°47’13”N 9°08’56”E

Part fuselage 1km W of Ernatsreute +- 100m 47°48’36”N 9°12’08”E

DHL Boeing 757 crash site memorial : 1km SW of Taisersdorf 47°50’28.82”N 9°12’26.78”E

757 top fin W. of Altheim, also debris from the Tu-154M was found here (mixed debris area) +- 1km 47°49’15”N 9°15’03”E

Tuesday 22 August 2006 Pulkovo airlines Tu-154M RA-85185 c/n 91A-894

Flight FV612 from Anapa (AAQ), Russia to Saint Petersburg (LED) with 10 crew and 160 passengers. Cruising at 10700m it approached some storm cells. The crew decided to try to climb over but the thunderstorm front extended extremely high till 15000m. The airplane got into severe turbulence, with the airplane being pushed up to 12794m in 10 seconds. Control was lossed and the airplane entered a deep stall from which the crew could not recover. First flight : 1991

Airframe hrs : 24215 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All 170 people on board died in the crash. location : 45km NW v Donetsk, near Novgorodskoye +-2km 48°15’19”N 38°14’55”E

Friday 1 September 2006 Iran Airtour Tu-154M EP-MCF c/n 88A-788

Flight 945 from Bandar Abbas (BND), Iran to Mashdad apt (MHD), Iran with 11 crew and 137 passengers. Mishap on landing at Mashhad RW14L. The aircraft swerved from the RW and caught fire. First flight : 1988 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. 28 people died in the crash and 54 seriously injured. location : +-100m 36°14’37.4”N 59°37’53.5”E

Wednesday 15 July 2009 Caspian Airlines Tu-154M EP-CPG c/n 87A-748

Flight CPN7908 from Tehran (IKA), Iran to Yerevan (EVN), Armenia with 10 crew and 158 passengers. 12min after take off from Tehran no.1 engine suffered a LPC disc failure. Parts of the engine damaged the controls in the tail which resulted in a loss of control. The airplane plummeted from 28800 ft and dived into the ground with high speed creating a 10m deep crater. First flight : 1987. Airframe hrs : 26593 cycles : 16248 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash.

location : 12km south of Qazvin, Iran +-5 km 36°09’56”N 50°00’25”E

Saturday 10 April 2010 Polish Air Force Tu-154M reg. 101 c/n 90A-837

Flight from Warszawa (WAW) to Smolensk afb (XUBS), Russia with 8 crew and 88 passengers. Approach in poor visibility (fog with 200m visibility) to RW26. The crew continued its descent in circumstances below minima. The aircraft flew into the ground 1100m before the runway. First flight : 1990. Airframe hrs : 5143 cycles : 3899 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. All people on board died in the crash, including Polish president Lech Kaczynski and some more high government officials.

location : 1km E of Smolensk afb +-20m 54°49.450΄N 32°03.041΄E

Saturday 4 December 2010 Dagestan Airlines Tu-154M RA-85744 c/n 92A-927

Flight 372 from Moskva (VKO) to Makhachkala (MCX), Russia with 8 crew and 163 passengers. Two engines flamed out due to incorrect fuel distribution by the crew. The crew diverted to Moscow-Domodedovo airport (DMW) and landed hard on RW32R with only one engine running and could not stop in time. First flight : 1992 Airframe hrs : 9288 cycles : 2985 engines : Soloviev D-30KU-154-II. Two people died in the crash and 39 injured. location : +-25m 55°25.27'N 37°54.72'E (taken from the accident report)

16 fatal accidents with 1597 fatalities between 1993 and 2008, total 30 service years, 325 Tu-154M’s built , safety number = (1597 dead / 325 aircraft) = 4.91 fatal/aircraft in 30 service years = 0.164. aircraft loss per centage : 16/325*100 = 4.9% in 30 year = 0.16% per year. 325 aircraft x 1300 flying hrs/year x 850 km/hr x 30 = 10.77 mld/km > 6.75 mln km/fatal.

1983-1993-2010-2013